Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
